Outlook
According to forecasts by economic institutes, a moderate economic climate can be expected for the 2024/2025 fiscal year. Inflation is likely to drop further in Austria, and to settle in a range between +2.2% and +2.5% in the 2025 calendar year. Real incomes are expected to increase and consumer demand is becoming more lively, making moderate GDP growth likely. The Austrian institutes IHS and WIFO expect GDP growth between +0.8% and +1.0% in Austria for the 2025 calendar year. The IMF forecasts Austrian GDP growth of +1.1%. In the euro zone, higher economic growth than in Austria is expected for in the range of between +1.2% and +1.4%. According to forecasts, the Czech Republic is expected to see significantly more positive GDP development of +2.7% on average in 2025.
In the coming reporting period, the focus in terms of energy policy will be on security of supply, the resilience of the energy system and competitiveness. At the “COP 29” climate conference that took place from 11 November 2024 to 22 November 2024, the international climate financing target was increased to USD 300.0 billion while no decision was made on emission reductions. At the EU level, the publication of the New Clean Industrial Deal is anticipated in the first six months of the 2024/2025 fiscal year; it is intended to help implement the Green Deal. As EU infringement proceedings against Austria are already ongoing, a resolution on, for example, the Renewable Energies Expansion Acceleration Act, the Electricity Industry Act and the Renewable Gas Act is expected in the second half of the 2024/2025 fiscal year. In the fiscal year ahead, a new Electricity Industry Act and the implementation in Austria of the “Gas and Hydrogen Package” published in the summer of 2024 in the EU’s official gazette, are expected to lay down the path for the energy industry.
The framework conditions in the energy sector remain challenging for the fiscal year ahead. The major volatility drivers remain the further developments in political crisis regions, in particular Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the conflict zones in the Middle East, and general economic development. According to experts, the partial stop of Russian gas supplies to Austria for the winter of 2024/2025 will not have any materially negative impacts on security of supply. Additional fees can be expected on the Austrian gas market in the medium term. From a current perspective, prices will remain well above the level prior to the period before the upheavals on the energy market as liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the price driver, while cheaper pipeline gas dominated the market up to 2021. As regards the development of the energy markets, a volatile sideways trend is expected for the 2024/2025 fiscal year. The diversification of European gas procurement, the expansion of the LNG infrastructure in Germany, high gas storage levels in Europe and Austria, and the reduced demand for gas all have a stabilising effect on the energy markets.
Starting in mid-September 2024, Vertrieb GmbH electricity customers have been given an opportunity to switch tariffs with effect from 1 October 2024; this can mean customer savings of up to 34.0% compared to previous tariffs. Vertrieb GmbH acquired 100% of the shares in Pöchhacker Innovation Consulting GmbH with effect from 1 October 2024. This will make it possible to expand the range of services offered to customers, particularly in the area of subsidies advisory services.
The focus in the business unit Generation in the fiscal year ahead will be on the campaign to expand wind power and PV systems in Upper Austria. There are plans to build nineteen wind turbines with an electricity generation capacity of some 250 GWh by 2030 in the Kobernaußerwald area. The application for EIA approval procedure will be submitted in the 2024/2025 financial year. The Trautmannsdorf Nord wind park is being expanded by another system with an output of 4.2 MW. The application for approval is scheduled for submission in the second half of the 2024/2025 fiscal year. Numerous PV projects are currently in various stages of approval and will gradually enter the construction phase in the fiscal year ahead. Construction work on the Ebensee pumped-storage power plant will focus on the surge chamber and the pressure shaft to the cavern in the 2024/2025 fiscal year. The integration of volatile, decentralised power generation systems and flexible consumption systems is another key focus. To provide flexible capacity at short notice, and be able meet the requirements of an increasingly decarbonised energy system at the same time, Energie AG will increasingly focus on battery storage technology in the future. Beyond this, the focus is increasingly shifting to innovative hydrogen projects where strategic partnerships will contribute to empowering Energie AG to take an active position on the hydrogen market.
The regulatory environment for the Grid Segment for the 2024/2025 fiscal year can continue to be assessed as positive. The regulatory system takes into account changes in framework conditions and the challenges associated with the energy transition. In future – at least in the fifth regulatory period for electricity – capital costs will be recognised in advance based on planned investments. In the gas sector, the importance of hydrogen is steadily increasing, with intensive work being done to create the framework conditions for the practicability and funding of an initial H2 grid. There are huge challenges in the context of connecting decentralised generation systems, decarbonising industry and the growth of electromobility including the charging points required for this. To this end, investment funds will be increased on average to around EUR 200.0 million annually over the next few years. Similarly, human resources and the sufficient availability of materials and operating resources will remain in the focus at all times.
In the Waste Management Segment, volumes of commercial and industrial waste are expected to see stable development. The future development of the recycling materials paper, metals and waste wood is difficult to forecast. Umwelt Service GmbH is continuing to invest in sustainable projects in the 2024/2025 fiscal year, such as the installation of PV systems, the procurement of heavy goods vehicles with electric drivetrains and charging infrastructure.
The implementation of decarbonisation and energy efficiency projects in the heat and drinking water supply and waste water management business units will push forward in the Czech Republic Segment. Services from the entire water and heating spectrum will continue to be offered to towns and communities. In the 2024/2025 fiscal year, the entities in the Czech Republic Segment are focusing on new efficiency projects in order to secure customer loyalty in the long term. The extension of important operating contracts will also be a key challenge for all water companies in the fiscal year ahead.
In the next fiscal year, the telecommunications business area will focus on intensifying customer relationships with providers and establishing new partnerships with IT system providers for their customers’ fibre optic connections. In addition, an optical transport network (OTN) link to the Vienna internet node will be procured in order to ensure secure data traffic for 48 hours in the event of a large-scale power failure.
In view of the tense geopolitical situation and numerous challenges in the energy industry and energy policy, Energie AG will continue to focus on supplying its customers in a reliable manner, and on ensuring the Group’s financial stability in the 2024/2025 fiscal year. Beyond this, numerous campaigns and projects from the Group-wide “LOOP” strategy and organisation project will be implemented in the fiscal year ahead in order to help shape a sustainable energy future and drive the Group’s digital transformation forward.
Against the backdrop of the projected moderate economic development, uncertain markets, and an increasingly competitive market situation, Energie AG expects a lower but still very good earnings performance for the 2024/2025 fiscal year compared with the reporting period.
Linz, 2 December 2024
The Management Board of Energie AG Oberösterreich
Dr. Leonhard Schitter MA
CEO
Dr. Andreas Kolar
CFO
Dipl.-Ing. Alexander Kirchner MBA
CTO