The first half of the 2021/2022 fiscal year (1 October 2021 to 31 March 2022) was characterised on the one hand by a dynamic economic recovery in the first five months of the reporting period and on the other by the shock to the international economic landscape caused by the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war on 24 February 2022 along with the associated sanctions. The additional supply chain problems and price increases resulting from this, particularly in the raw materials and energy sectors, further aggravated inflation, which was already on the rise.
Economic growth and inflation
YoY real change (in %)
Sources: IHS, WIFO, IMF
In the wake of the years 2020 and 2021, which were heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with economic growth of -6.4% and +5.3%, the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), the Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast economic growth for the euro zone in the range of +2.8% to +4.3% for 2022. It must also be noted that the current geopolitical landscape limits the reliability of forecasts by economic research institutes on the future development of the economic situation.
After GDP growth of +4.5% in 2021, the domestic institutes forecast values between +3.6% and +3.9% for the Austrian economy in 2022; this is a significant downward reappraisal of the previous growth forecast towards the end of the reporting period. The IMF is far more pessimistic with a value of +2.6%. The experts expect economic growth to range between +2.0% and +3.0% in 2023. This development will be accompanied by a sharp rise in inflation in the expected range of +5.5% (IHS) to +5.8% (WIFO) for 2022, which will primarily be driven by energy prices and is expected to remain at a high level in 2023. The forecasts for the Austrian economy are also fraught by major uncertainties and exposed to considerable risks, especially in the event of a supply or import freeze for Russian gas and oil.
For the Czech Republic market relevant to Energie AG Oberösterreich (Energie AG), an increase in the gross domestic product of between +2.3% and +4.4% is anticipated for the calendar year 2022.